Projecting Migration, Population, and Demographics Under Future Scenarios
Example applications of projected population patterns
Environmental impacts on individuals or households
Estimate extreme heat/air pollution impacts on human health
Economic activity such as GDP, household consumption, and infrastructure demand
Assess the demand for transportation, energy, water, sanitation, and healthcare
Land use change and trends in impervious surface
Evaluate land conservation policies
Our expertise spans a diverse range of models and frameworks to develop population projections. Models based on demographic events (mortality, fertility, and immigration) and domestic migration can be applied to project where people may be located and what their demographic / socioeconomic characteristics may be.
1. City-level migration flows include location-specific economic, environmental, and social factors
2. Household-level location choices include household-specific (e.g., wages) and location-specific (e.g., temperatures) factors.The amenity value of climate - what people are willing to pay (WTP) to experience warmer winters or avoid hotter summers is an important component of the benefits of climate policies. We provide estimates of these non-market values across cities in the United States using two revealed preference methods and econometric models. We find that the amenity value of climate could significantly add to market-based estimates of climate damages, even for moderate temperature increases.